that's a conservative part of the state. no one expected obama to win it. . the question becomes is what's on the ends. so far, we are seeing his numbers hold up remarkably well there. so i don't think that it's going to be -- i agree with jonathan capehart, it's fool's gold. but we'll see what happens and i'm sticking with robert. probably not. >> i like that. overall, one romney adviser said it's a tied football game. there's a loose ball. is that the talk of someone who is behind? i have been asking people today, if it's tied, don't you claim to be ahead? >> if only i knew the answer. this is the question that we all watch the same polls nationally and in the battlegrounds, they are tight. you can be buffetted one way or the other of the spin on both sides. they make the case the early voting numbers look like the obama campaign has lost the margin it went into election day with four years ago. on the other hand, it shows obama is up by two to one margins. you can glean whatever you want out of the facts that we have, the data that we have. the larger issu